Faction Openings


This information is copied from a post by Juho Snellman, who built the very excellent online Terra Mystica website, and posted the following as an original article on boardgamegeek.  I have reproduced it here so that it won’t be buried, lost, or deleted amongst the many posts on boardgamegeek.

RE-POSTED ARTICLE

The following data is from all 4p online games that are included in the rankings. It shows for each faction how well the faction did on average compared to the other factions in play when using different opening strategies. The way you should read this is for example that Alchemists scored 2vp above average when opening with a SH and 1.3vp below average when using a temple.

The openings I consider interesting are as follows. (If multiple buckets are applicable, pick the one that’s earlier in the list).,

– SA: Faction built a sanctuary on round 1
– TE: Faction built a temple on round 1
– SH: Faction built a stronghold on round 1
– 4xD: Faction built at least 4 new dwellings
– 2xTP: Faction build at least 2 trading posts
– other: None of the above. The player is probably not very good. This bucket can be mostly ignored.

Any bucket that did not have at least 10 entries in it will be completely excluded from the stats. So for most factions there will be a few games that won’t be in any of the displayed data buckets (e.g. there were under 10 games where Alchemists built 4 or more dwellings on round 1 — those games are excluded completely, rather than appear under “other”).

These statistics include two ways of looking at the data. First we have “raw” numbers, which are just a difference between the actual VPs the factions got compared to the average VP of the other factions. After that we have “skill-adjusted” numbers, where the player skill is taken into account as well (a player with a ranking 100 points higher than an opponent is expected to score 10 points higher).

There are a bunch of interesting things here. I’ll point out the ones I that caught my eye sometime tomorrow, unless somebody beats me to them.

And finally, I would really appreciate it if this thread didn’t degenerate into yet another boring balance flamewar. We’ve got plenty of those already. I’m hoping this could be a discussion about what openings work / don’t work for various factions, and why. That kind of thing can teach us all how to play better, while bitching about a perceived lack of balance will achieve nothing.


3778 of 9877 games matched criteria.

raw data

alchemists

BuildVPVP DevFreq
2xTP-11.92+/- 5.8821
SH2.01+/- 1.12650
TE-2.53+/- 3.4779
other-19.35+/- 2.89117

auren
2xTP -27.55 vp ± 5.27, count=13
4xD 13.93 vp ± 4.57, count=36
SH -2.83 vp ± 1.43, count=420
TE -7.98 vp ± 5.93, count=44
other -13.41 vp ± 3.04, count=101

chaosmagicians
3xD+TP -15.21 vp ± 5.83, count=21
SA 8.94 vp ± 1.58, count=363
SH -36.99 vp ± 5.38, count=25
TE 1.73 vp ± 0.97, count=985
other -24.10 vp ± 2.64, count=124

cultists
2xTP -9.94 vp ± 4.59, count=48
SA -2.71 vp ± 6.33, count=22
SH -33.22 vp ± 6.77, count=20
TE 8.08 vp ± 1.37, count=536
other -11.38 vp ± 2.16, count=203

darklings
2xTP -12.86 vp ± 5.70, count=27
3xD+TP 1.22 vp ± 6.31, count=12
4xD 21.13 vp ± 8.32, count=16
TE 11.24 vp ± 0.85, count=1177
other 2.14 vp ± 1.44, count=450

dwarves
2xTP -5.34 vp ± 4.27, count=35
SA 8.53 vp ± 8.98, count=10
SH -15.60 vp ± 2.40, count=139
TE 9.90 vp ± 1.54, count=386
other -5.30 vp ± 1.62, count=370

engineers
2xTP -7.12 vp ± 4.24, count=60
3xD+TP -8.60 vp ± 5.81, count=30
4xD 8.97 vp ± 6.35, count=22
SA -4.03 vp ± 8.74, count=10
SH -32.58 vp ± 3.81, count=60
TE 5.12 vp ± 1.28, count=587
other -19.39 vp ± 2.37, count=180

fakirs
2xTP -11.49 vp ± 6.74, count=19
SH -17.68 vp ± 3.39, count=77
TE -2.19 vp ± 1.79, count=260
other -19.09 vp ± 3.27, count=78

giants
SH -1.01 vp ± 1.22, count=540
TE -7.72 vp ± 6.56, count=24
other -25.08 vp ± 4.66, count=41

halflings
2xTP -8.02 vp ± 5.02, count=44
3xD+TP 8.33 vp ± 7.10, count=17
4xD 15.44 vp ± 5.95, count=24
SH -13.36 vp ± 1.84, count=207
TE 10.52 vp ± 1.20, count=600
other -10.19 vp ± 1.36, count=470

mermaids
2xTP -11.48 vp ± 3.66, count=67
3xD+TP -0.08 vp ± 4.14, count=44
4xD 8.31 vp ± 2.32, count=149
SH -13.94 vp ± 3.00, count=109
TE 6.69 vp ± 1.17, count=605
other -10.65 vp ± 1.99, count=242

nomads
2xTP 1.90 vp ± 4.01, count=55
SH 0.39 vp ± 0.94, count=980
TE 7.17 vp ± 2.34, count=160
other -14.63 vp ± 2.08, count=197

swarmlings
2xTP -27.27 vp ± 6.52, count=16
3xD+TP -1.93 vp ± 6.36, count=23
SA -12.30 vp ± 11.64, count=10
SH 1.42 vp ± 1.19, count=641
TE -11.91 vp ± 3.73, count=68
TE+SH 8.30 vp ± 1.86, count=234
other -11.59 vp ± 2.19, count=197

witches
2xTP -4.90 vp ± 4.16, count=49
3xD+TP 5.31 vp ± 5.51, count=26
4xD 10.35 vp ± 2.63, count=115
SH 1.19 vp ± 1.20, count=659
TE 4.70 vp ± 2.16, count=214
other -13.00 vp ± 1.98, count=242

skill-adjusted

alchemists

2xTP -8.60 vp ± 4.42, count=20
SH -2.76 vp ± 0.92, count=628
TE -4.24 vp ± 2.58, count=76
other -8.84 vp ± 2.20, count=110

auren
2xTP -13.16 vp ± 5.51, count=12
4xD 8.98 vp ± 3.92, count=35
SH -2.90 vp ± 1.18, count=402
TE -9.74 vp ± 4.46, count=43
other -7.06 vp ± 2.33, count=96

chaosmagicians
3xD+TP -12.53 vp ± 4.80, count=21
SA 6.36 vp ± 1.31, count=351
SH -24.69 vp ± 4.52, count=22
TE 1.86 vp ± 0.79, count=948
other -14.29 vp ± 2.43, count=110

cultists
2xTP -4.97 vp ± 3.62, count=47
SA -2.92 vp ± 4.95, count=21
SH -15.24 vp ± 4.87, count=18
TE 5.25 vp ± 1.11, count=527
other -1.51 vp ± 1.84, count=194

darklings
2xTP -2.50 vp ± 4.57, count=26
3xD+TP 10.33 vp ± 5.42, count=12
4xD 15.44 vp ± 6.50, count=16
TE 9.08 vp ± 0.67, count=1136
other 6.78 vp ± 1.13, count=426

dwarves
2xTP -3.03 vp ± 3.42, count=34
SA 6.54 vp ± 5.12, count=10
SH -9.91 vp ± 1.94, count=131
TE 2.35 vp ± 1.22, count=374
other -1.53 vp ± 1.31, count=354
engineers
2xTP -9.62 vp ± 3.40, count=58
3xD+TP -9.60 vp ± 4.11, count=29
4xD 1.22 vp ± 5.47, count=22
SH -22.66 vp ± 3.31, count=59
TE 0.44 vp ± 1.02, count=572
other -14.03 vp ± 1.88, count=164

fakirs
2xTP -15.86 vp ± 5.11, count=19
SH -13.72 vp ± 2.70, count=74
TE -10.23 vp ± 1.50, count=253
other -12.23 vp ± 2.61, count=72
giants
SH -3.36 vp ± 0.98, count=527
TE -7.06 vp ± 5.42, count=23
other -15.12 vp ± 4.10, count=34

halflings
2xTP -4.68 vp ± 4.15, count=38
3xD+TP -0.26 vp ± 5.46, count=17
4xD 10.60 vp ± 4.66, count=24
SH -10.36 vp ± 1.54, count=201
TE 6.22 vp ± 1.01, count=576
other -4.53 vp ± 1.13, count=441

mermaids
2xTP -3.84 vp ± 2.89, count=65
3xD+TP 2.25 vp ± 3.32, count=43
4xD 3.10 vp ± 2.01, count=144
SH -10.78 vp ± 2.42, count=107
TE 1.68 vp ± 0.95, count=589
other -4.59 vp ± 1.60, count=225

nomads
2xTP 1.87 vp ± 3.14, count=52
SH 1.23 vp ± 0.76, count=941
TE 2.06 vp ± 1.86, count=156
other -4.79 vp ± 1.76, count=179

swarmlings
2xTP -18.99 vp ± 5.26, count=16
3xD+TP 6.02 vp ± 4.82, count=22
SA -12.52 vp ± 7.78, count=10
SH 0.56 vp ± 0.94, count=617
TE -8.75 vp ± 2.92, count=66
TE+SH 3.60 vp ± 1.60, count=226
other -4.34 vp ± 1.84, count=182

witches
2xTP -1.48 vp ± 3.13, count=46
3xD+TP 0.59 vp ± 4.21, count=25
4xD 3.97 vp ± 2.25, count=112
SH 2.84 vp ± 0.99, count=625
TE 1.78 vp ± 1.62, count=206
other -4.72 vp ± 1.52, count=229

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